Green Tiger Markets PH Electricity November Update
Dear Green Tiger Market Client,
As 2025 draws to a close, the familiar sounds of Christmas music fill the air and festive preparations are well underway. It’s a season for gratitude and reflection—a perfect moment to look back on the year’s surprises and lessons. Who could have predicted, just a year ago, that 2025’s baseload prices would settle in the 3.6–3.7 php/kWh range?
Although 2025 began with one of the earliest yellow alerts on record, the remainder of the year unfolded with unexpected calm. As the year progressed, nearly every factor in the supply and demand equation shifted bearishly, contributing to a steady drop in prices. For many consumers, this downward trend provided much-needed breathing room after years of surging costs.
2025 has truly been a landmark year for solar energy in Luzon—midday prices, once notoriously volatile, have finally stabilized, bringing welcome relief to consumers across the region. The phenomenon we’ve all been watching for—the infamous ‘duck curve’—has arrived in full force, signaling a dramatic shift in how and when we generate and consume electricity. For the first time in recent memory, coal-fired generation is decisively losing ground, as cleaner alternatives take market share. Meanwhile, generous rainfalls have kept hydro reservoirs at optimal levels, fueling a robust and reliable season for renewables. These historic developments are not only reshaping our grid—they’re redefining what’s possible for Luzon’s energy future.
Amid all the market chatter, one message rings clear: strategic hedging is absolutely essential. In a landscape transformed by shifting supply patterns, both Generators and Consumers face a unique window of opportunity—one that savvy industry leaders won’t let pass by. Now is the time to act decisively and secure forward contracts for 2026 before conditions change. At present, we’re seeing baseload prices in the low 4s and midday rates holding steady in the low 3s. By locking in these rates, you not only insulate your business from price volatility ahead but also position yourself to capitalize on those who prefer to throw dice. Don’t let inertia be the reason you miss out on this ideal moment—take charge, protect your margins, and ensure a brighter, more predictable future.
Interested in learning more about how to improve supply/demand balance forecasting?
Areas of Focus for Hedging
Forward prices have been drifting a little lower
Steady bids from RES and Bulk Consumers
Sellers are sniffing around in 2026, and 2027
The forwards have stabilized despite the large selloff in September spot.
Cal 26 4100 Bid @ 4300 Offered
Cal 27 4200 Bid @ 4700 Offered
Long term midday (5 years or more) offered at 3900
We continue to witness a strong increase in activity from a variety of participants looking to lock in prices for next year. We have registered a handful of new clients in the last two months, and they are becoming more active.
Live pricing levels
Given the fast-paced shifts in market pricing, we encourage you to reach out directly for the latest and most detailed list of active orders. Connect with us to stay ahead and access the most current opportunities—thank you!
Meet with a GTM Risk Management Specialist
In a quick phone call we can help stabilize your future.
Market Data and Commentary
#1 Baseload Prices by Region
October saw a bounce in Luzon spot prices with several hours printing the price cap in the evening. Visayas and Mindanao acted like the HVDC line did not exist and took a very bullish price path. As large plants start to go down for maintenance, we should expect to see a few more bullish outbreaks in spot. Midday, however, continues to average well under Baseload in Luzon. We expect Midday to continue deteriorate given load declines into year end but new solar facilities continue to get energized. Our estimate is that Luzon clears 3650 for 2025 Baseload with some downside risk to that forecast.
As we step into November, prices have stabilized and appear to be trending back to the seasonal lows at this time of the year. Our early look has November Luzon Baseload coming in around 3500. We are on negative price watch as load is coming down but RE continues to go up.
#2 Luzon prices by 8hr time block
In our second graph below, we have plotted the 8 hour time block contracts as well as Baseload.
Midday Hours continue dislocating lower on occasion, with steady repricing for the Midday Hours to match Morning Hours.
Evening hours could see downward pressure as demand drops off into year end, and hydro output remains robust.
#3 Luzon monthly ratios by product
In our third graph below, we have plotted the ratios of the individual 8 hour products to Baseload. The Evening Hours spiked in October, likely driven by a seasonal rise in outages. Midday and Morning Hours continue to be weak relative to baseload. We saw Evening Hours prices clear roughly 68% over baseload for July, almost matching March's outage driven 70% over baseload print. Midday and Morning are running roughly 30% below baseload.
#4 Luzon and Visayas Baseload by year
For Luzon, this year continues to look bearish from the last few years. Every month in 2025 has cleared below 2024. We saw some weakness in Luzon lto close out 2024, so it is worth keeping an eye out for further weakness. Visayas, on the other hand, after spending most of the year well below 2024 prices, has been roughly matching last year 3 months in a row, and could put in a more constructive finish to the year.
#5 Hourly Prices by Region
Below we have plotted hourly prices by region. Note the massive gap that opened up during Midday hours in Visayas and Mindanao vs Luzon. As more solar comes in, we expect to see more subdued midday pricing, but it could take some time.
If you are interested in learning more about our data analysis, please don't hesitate to contact us at [email protected].
New Market Participants!
We continue to add market participants and expand the number of approved counterparties for the GTM market.
As a reminder, all market participants must have net assets in excess of SGD$10mm to become approved market participants.
Market News
As per our usual practice, we have incorporated a selection of recent news stories and emerging trends in the PH electricity market. If there are any noteworthy events you would like us to share, kindly inform us! Enjoy!
Banishing bill shock:
Read the latest in Power Philippines "Energy Trailblazers" section.
SMPC 9M profit falls 37%:
Power sales grew 12% to 4,186 GWh, but the average electricity selling price dipped 10% to PHP4.46 per kWh. SMPC said 40% of its 860-megawatt dependable capacity was under contract as of September 2025, with the rest sold on the spot market.
ACEN’s Net Income Drops 78%:
Weaker solar output and lower electricity prices offset gains from newly commissioned renewable assets.
BSP-Foreign direct investments drop 40%:
This was the lowest inflow in two months or since the $376 million in June. It was also 61 percent lower than the one-year high of $1.27.
DOE reviewing idle RE contracts:
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the agency is “purging” service contracts that were awarded but have yet to progress from pre-development to development stages.
EDC’s recurring income fell 36% to USD 38 million (PHP 2.2 billion):
Reflecting lower operating income due to reduced market prices and higher interest expenses tied to drilling and expansion projects.
ERC expands consumer access to retail power market with new 100-kW threshold:
Lowering of the contestability threshold for electricity consumers from 500 kilowatts (kW) to 100 kW of average monthly peak demand.
AboitizPower Q3 profit jumps 32% to PHP 10.6B:
Higher sales volumes—32,138 GWh, up 19%—offset lower market prices.
Coal price outlook:
Newcastle coal futures are around $110/ton and looking to head lower.
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Stay safe and thank you for your business!
-John Knorring, CEO Green Tiger Markets
The views contained in this newsletter are my own opinion and should not be considered investment advice or relied upon to make investment decisions. Disclaimer.
