Green Tiger Markets: April Electricity Market Review
Dear Valued Client,
The Philippines electricity market continues to be shaped by persistent geopolitical risk from the Middle East. The conflict remains a major source of disruption to energy flows. Even when the Philippines is not directly exposed to the conflict, it is affected through higher and more volatile fuel prices, tighter shipping conditions, and broader uncertainty in imported energy markets. For market participants, that means the cost of risk is still elevated and planning remains more difficult than usual.
Against that backdrop, the resumption of the spot market is a positive development for the electricity sector as a whole. A functioning spot market restores an important mechanism for real-time price discovery and helps the market reflect supply-demand conditions more accurately. Transparency is especially valuable in periods of external volatility because it allows participants to see stress points early rather than absorb them later through less visible distortions.
The price signals generated by the spot market also support better decision-making across the value chain. Generators can respond more efficiently to system needs, retailers can improve procurement strategies, and large users can make more informed choices about timing and exposure. Over time, these signals help encourage investment in the right kind of capacity, flexibility, and hedging behavior, which strengthens the resilience of the entire market.
For the Philippines power sector, the real opportunity is not to mute price swings, but to manage them intelligently through well‑designed market tools. In a world where global energy supply can shift overnight on geopolitical headlines, a live, liquid spot market becomes your early-warning system—delivering real-time price signals, sharper transparency, and a stronger foundation for managing risk. And by layering in forward hedges through GTM, generators, retailers, and large users can go one step further: converting uncertainty into clear, pre-agreed price paths that protect margins, stabilize budgets, and significantly reduce the impact of short-term market shocks.
If you’re reassessing how you manage risk in this kind of market, we’d be glad to connect and explore how GTM’s hedging solutions can help you secure prices, protect margins, and bring more predictability to your power portfolio.
Interested in learning more about how to improve supply/demand balance forecasting?
Areas of Focus for Hedging
Forward prices have stabilized, though they are still elevated
Significant volumes are turning over in Visayas for 1 and 2 year strips
1 year Baseload Luzon strips starting over the next few months have been in the upper 4s
Strong desire to sell Midday hours
Cal 27 4300 Bid @ 4700 Offered
We’re seeing a strong, sustained surge in engagement from a diverse mix of market participants who are actively using today’s forward levels to lock in value before the next leg of the move. Generators are taking advantage of elevated prices. Consumers are locking in to mitigate any risk that the Middle East conflict extends far into the future.
Live pricing levels:
With markets moving fast and windows of opportunity opening and closing by the day, the best way to understand what’s truly actionable is to talk with us in real time. Reach out for a live, up-to-the-minute view of active orders and curated opportunities so you can set the pace in the market—instead of reacting to it.
Meet with a GTM Risk Management Specialist
In a quick phone call we can help stabilize your future.
Market Data and Commentary
Philippine electricity prices are being pulled in two directions, with support from fuel and weather risks on one side and potential supply relief on the other. The setup leaves room for both upside and downside, depending on how coal, geopolitics, El Niño, and renewable additions evolve over the rest of the year.
Bullish factors
Longer-term energy disruption could keep the market tight and support prices.
Elevated coal prices for the balance of the year would raise marginal generation costs.
A forecast for strong El Niño adds upside risk.
El Niño conditions are typically hotter and drier than normal, which can increase AC demand and reduce hydro output.
A reversion to strong load growth could keep prices supported.
Bearish factors
The Middle East conflict could end sooner than expected which will put downward pressure on energy prices.
Forward prices moved up 20–25% above pre-conflict levels. Prior to the conflict, the market was fairly heavy and felt oversupplied.
Energy supply-chain disruptions may prove less severe than currently forecast.
A significant amount of solar is already energized and more is expected through year-end.
The CBK hydro complex should be more active, helping balance midday solar surplus against evening deficits.
#1 Baseload Prices by Region
Prices were essentially uniform across the regions.
#2 Luzon prices by 8hr time block
In our second graph below, we have plotted the 8 hour time block contracts as well as Baseload.
We saw a reversion to the mean for each day segment. We expect that to head back towards trend with Morning and Midday substantially weaker.
#3 Luzon monthly ratios by product
In our third graph below, we have plotted the ratios of the individual 8 hour products to Baseload.
The administered price clearly forced all prices during the day closer to the mean with Morning and Midday ratios bouncing substantially and evening coming in quite dramatically. We expect the coming months to revert to trend with Midday and Morning much lower and Evening much higher.
#4 Luzon and Visayas Baseload by year
We saw monthly prices slightly higher than '25 and a good bit lower than '24/'23. It will be interesting to see where things shake out next month.
#5 Hourly Prices by Region
Below we have plotted hourly prices by region. Note that all prices were essentially identical across regions during the Administered pricing regime.
#6 Final settles by segment
If you are interested in learning more about our data analysis, please don't hesitate to contact us at [email protected].
New Market Participants!
We continue to add market participants and expand the number of approved counterparties for the GTM market.
As a reminder, all market participants must have net assets in excess of SGD$10mm to become approved market participants.
Market News
As per our usual practice, we have incorporated a selection of recent news stories and emerging trends in the PH electricity market. If there are any noteworthy events you would like us to share, kindly inform us! Enjoy!
Always be Hedging:
Please see our latest piece in Power Philippines. TL,DR; Hedging would have subdued this energy shock.
Lawmakers push review of power charges:
Philippine lawmakers are calling for a review of electricity pricing mechanisms as rising global fuel costs and a weaker peso continue to drive up power bills.
Malampaya Phase 4 advances subsea works toward first gas:
The project is progressing with subsea installation and pipelaying works offshore Palawan
Oil shock drives Asia-wide fuel subsidies; PH among top responders—ADB:
Governments across Asia and the Pacific have rolled out subsidies, tax cuts, and other measures to cushion the impact of surging fuel prices
SMPC Q1 income drops 12%:
The company said its performance was affected mainly by weaker output from its power plants, even as its coal operations showed mixed results.
ACEN extends PHP 850M loan for Palauig battery project:
The planned project involves a 35-megawatt (MW) / 140-megawatt-hour (MWh) battery system
ERC lifts WESM suspension:
ERC has ordered the resumption of operations of the WESM
First Gen targets Q4 2026 finish for Aya hydro storage facility:
First Gen Corporation is on track to complete its 120-megawatt Aya pumped-storage project in Nueva Ecija
Coal price outlook:
Newcastle coal futures are around $135/ton and looking to head higher.
Joining the GTM Marketplace is free.
We highly encourage you to connect with other potential participants who haven't yet joined this thriving marketplace. It's an incredibly efficient way to enhance the liquidity on Green Tiger Markets. If there's a specific company you believe would be a valuable addition to our marketplace, introducing them warmly can truly make a significant impact.
Stay safe and thank you for your business!
-John Knorring, CEO Green Tiger Markets
The views contained in this newsletter are my own opinion and should not be considered investment advice or relied upon to make investment decisions. Disclaimer.
